EURUSD Hits 5-month high after the First Round of French Elections
EURUSD Hits 5-month high after the First Round of French Elections
by: Colibri Trader
- Socialist and Republican candidates were eliminated in the first round
- 7th of May will show two radically opposed groups of voters
For the first time in the modern history of France, both establishment parties were eliminated in the first round. The results after the election were: 23.8% for the independent Macron and 21.5% for the NF leader- Le Pen. A snap poll suggested that in the second round, Macron will defeat Le Pen by more than 20 percentage points.
The other three candidates were accordingly:
- Francois Fillon 19.9%
- Jean-Luc Melenchon 19.6%
- Benoit Hamon 6.4%
How was that outcome felt in the markets:
-
EURUSD skyrocketed to 1.0900
-
CAC 40 went to its highest high since almost 2 years
-
DAX (Germany 30) went up to a new high at 12337
As a result of the elections, the daily price action has been extended and may provide less trading setups in the next few days. The price needs to find support/resistance and continue or reverse. The outcome has been quite hectic and close to the one that BREXIT had. It is still not as dramatic, but let’s not forget that the second round of the French elections is still to come.
Happy Monday,
Colibri Trader
Hi colibritrader,
My eyes popped after checking the charts from my bedside this morning via my phone. This is the first thing I do before the western roll out of bed, then it’s making coffee next.
Gaps all over the place, Yen right into resistance
I happened to be long the DAX from that supportive price action last few sessions and my TP has been hit 220 points 12051 to 12271
I’ve chosen not to take any more trades for the moment.
Holding :
YEN short 110.24
Long AUD .7554
My gold got stopped out unfortunately
and Buy stop triggerred on S&P 2373
I’ll be trailing stops on everything I’m a bit extended but it’s good training on trade management
Hi Dan,
I can understand that. Gaps everywhere, but after such a significant event, it is completely normal. I am happy you made some decent profits on DAX. I am currently not in any trades. Waiting for the dust to settle
My USDCHF and EURUSD also stopped out, wayyy above and below the SL. The USDCHF has retraced to my original open position that day, but still it got stopped out first. Waiting for the new setup also
Hello Harry,
That’s a shame … it seems around events like this technicals mean nothing. I wish I understood the fundamentals of past events better as well as catalysts. In the same breath most times just trading price on a chart can out perform the interpretation of news.
One thing for sure trading small with a larger stop has made a difference for me.
I use to trade larger than normal, DAX 500.00 / pt and shares 10k to 20k.
Winning big and losing big.
I’ve also talked to wealthy ppl and they said they did trade the market but it was the smallest part of their capital. In order of size invested, it was property, business then trading.
I won’t hide the fact that I still get annoyed after entering a great setup and get stopped out. However with more experience it happens less. I find I’m waiting much more now.
I could sum up my whole trading strategy in 2 sentences.
I keep it simple, however the wait is longer for opp’s, as of late I have been doing intrady but it really only is a hard habit to break.
I will be adapting this more and sooner in the future,
Screen time divided by hours spent reduces profits if you actually factor this into returns.
Necessary in the beginning but not so after time spent on the screens.
How are you getting on Harry ?
What stage are at in present ?
Take care
Dan
Hi Dan,
Winning big and losing big = gambling.
It’s some psychology we need to set also to see trading as business, it took me some time before realizing on what trading is for me today – trading can show who we really are.
I think I get a grasps on what master Colibri teaches us, it takes me 2-3 minutes of each pair confirming colibri’s steps before I get into a position. Once I set it, I forget it, wait for the next day to see whether it is going to hit TP SL or think just need to close.
Colibri’s strategy has edge that I am sure can break even SL.
Don’t be discouraged by the fundamental Dan. I TP my USDJPY despite SL USDCHF and EURUSD.
Just follow master colibri rules and we can be like colibri, just as we follow the Holy Book rules and we can be like Him.
-Harry
HI Harry,
We all go through stages, great to hear your doing well.
Hi Harry,
Fundamentals are good, but they are great if you are a macro trader and use them mostly. Then, technical analysis might not be necessary. It will be like comparing a BMW with Mercedes. Both are great german cars, but they attract the different types of drivers. Once you get to profitability, you just need to stick to what works. I can assure you that this sounds easier than it is in reality. I hope my posts are helping you and I am now considering writing one on fundamental analysis just for the sake of it 🙂
-Colibri
#nevergiveup
Hi Colibri,
I would want to know what macro trader is and how fundamental can help with our trading.
Also, I remember you replied Dan unless we are scalper, then can use Ger30 – which is derivatives of Dax? if they are the same, what would be the advantage trading the Dax itself rather than Ger30?
Thanks,
Harry
Hi Dan,
Thank you for the nice reply. I agree with you on most of the points you have made and especially about the trading size. I believe that the best thing, especially in the beginning is to trade small. If you initially wanted to start with 1000USD, split this into two and start with 500USD. Even if you lose 500USD (100 of your trading equity), that would still be 50% of your capital. This will help you psychologically and you will be better able to cope with the stress. As regards to the day trading- it is the riskiest of all, so I would not do it if I was not absolutely sure what I am after. Regarding property- that is a great business too, but requires slightly more capital. In the end of the day, if you want to make good money, you still require quite a bit of capital trading. I hope that helps!
Colibri
Patience pays back… sorry to hear that your SL was hit, but it is part of the game. Just don’t risk more than 1-2% of your capital and decrease the trading size after a losing trade. Simple rules but we forget about them too often
Hi colibritrader,
I can’t see the EUR/USD as a short setup, maybe a scalp.
Monthly basing pattern is making a strong last leg up to 1.12 RSI pos diverging. This on monthly is substantial.
Weekly is strong and has broken the downtrend line.
As far as a chart goes there is no short signal at all, not even an inside bar ?
Maybe if it hits a resis area then starts printing bearish price action.
Fot the life of me I don’t see anything other than quite bullish behaviour.
What am I missing
Regards
Hi Dan,
As I said before, I am monitoring it, which does not mean I am in a trade. As you are mentioning, there was no price action indication to make me trade it. There were only bullish candles, which meant we were seeing a breakout. Anyways- very good comment mate! So far it is mostly bullish behaviour. Otherwise, I am looking at DAX, which as I wrote before is still under this resistance area, which seems too hard to break through. There is some bullish and bearish rejection candles, which adds to the hesitation mode. Hopefully we can see some more certainty in the coming sessions. The best would be to get a long signal after a retracement, because we are in a bullish market. But, let’s see 🙂 Thanks again for the good remarks Dan
Hi colibritrader,
Thanks for replying, yes I didn’t think you were in a short.
USDJPY sure tics a few short boxes, was watching it yesterday didn’t look too healthy, wonder if it’s too late to enter after the bear candle. Must pay attention for a better entry.
One can miss opp’s when watching too many things, luckily 4me gold and silver are moving higher.
Regards 🙂
Hi Dan,
One can definitely miss a lot of opportunities when looking at too many things or concentrating on just one- like me with NZDUSD. I am currently looking at just that, since I am long since quite a few days. USDJPY looked great for a short, but I did not take any trades there. I am following DAX now, because this could be the next big thing.
-Colibri